The Washington Examiner published a piece on December 18 called Why Kazakhstan is strategically important for Washington written by Janusz Bugajski, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation and co-author of Eurasian Disunion: Russia’s Vulnerable Flanks with Margarita Assenova.
While not attempting to reduce a complicated, multi-factor situation like that in Kazakhstan to solely external dynamics, or even to what is evidently a new battleground involving a wide array of regional and global actors – the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic Union, the Organization of Turkish States (all of which count Kazakhstan as a member), NATO (Kazakhstan has an Individual Partnership Action Program, the penultimate step before full membership in the bloc), Russia, China, the U.S, the European Union, Turkey, the other four Central Asia nations, Caspian Sea neighbors Azerbaijan and Iran, Pakistan and India – it’s becoming increasingly evident that there is a new Great Game at play in Central Asia and Kazakhstan is shaping up as a king on the Grand Chessboard (as the infamous Zbigniew Brzezinski deemed it).
The Washington Examiner article identifies the nation’s geostrategic significance as follows.
It is the only Central Asian nation bordering “America’s two major adversaries, Russia and China,” and one which also “stands at the forefront of countering threats from Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.”
The author candidly identifies the “triple challenges of restricting any spillover from Afghanistan, containing an assertive China, and affirming independence from Russia intersect in Central Asia,” claiming that “Kazakhstan is reaching out for greater American involvement.”
He reminds readers that Kazakhstan accounts for 12% of world uranium reserves and 43% of total uranium ore production, and that it is the world’s ninth-largest exporter of crude oil, representing over 70% of Central Asia’s GDP, and also possesses the world’s 15th-largest established natural gas reserves. Chevron and ExxonMobil are involved in its oil sector. It also has an at yet not fully determined supply of rare earth elements.
The author discusses the US Strategy for Central Asia 2019-2025: Advancing Sovereignty and Economic Prosperity project launched three years ago, profering this advice: “[The] initiative needs to be developed to help the region withstand pressures from Russia and China. Military and intelligence services can be intensified to counter terrorist threats, and multinational regional formats must be supported. Washington can also help Kazakhstan secure membership in the prestigious Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development when it reaches the needed benchmarks.”
Bugajski ends his piece with the sanguine expectation that “U.S. firms [will] have many opportunities in a wide range of sectors, including energy, mining, engineering, construction, transport, agriculture, healthcare, and IT.”
Whichever precipitant or combination of factors triggered the recent violent unrest in Kazakhstan, at this point three decades of geopolitical maneuvering by major players on three continents appears to be culminating in a match that could, in its own right and connected with the NATO-Russia conflict along what the former claims as its Eastern Flank – from the Arctic Circle to the South Caucasus – provoke the acceleration and exacerbation of geopolitical rivalry with global consequences.
Reblogged this on The Free.
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Nice try, Janusz. I really don’t think the Kazakhs need Western capital anymore, seeing that China has two trillion dollars in US dollar reserves. No need to go begging to Antony Blinken and his Centra Bank masters for loans, lol. Kazakhstan is Russia’s and China’s brother, pal. Keep your stinkin’, Blinken hands off of them.
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Another particularly interesting report is by Pepe Escobar (for entire article please refer to: Steppe on Fire: Kazakhstan’s Color Revolution, By Pepe Escobar, January 06, 2022)
http://thesaker.is/steppe-on-fire-kazakhstans-color-revolution/
– “Nur-Sultan may even confiscate the assets of US and UK companies which are allegedly sponsoring the protests. This is how Nikol Pashinyan, chairman of the CSTO Collective Security Council and Prime Minister of Armenia, framed it: Tokayev invoked a “threat to national security” and the “sovereignty” of Kazakhstan, “caused, inter alia, by outside interference.” So the CSTO “decided to send peacekeeping forces” to normalize the situation, “for a limited period of time”.
The usual destabilizing suspects are well known. They may not have the reach, the political influence, and the necessary amount of Trojan horses to keep Kazakhstan on fire indefinitely…… Putin, Lukashenko and Tokayev spent a long time over the phone, at the initiative of Lukashenko. The leaders of all CSTO members are in close contact. A master game plan – as in a massive “anti-terrorist operation” – has already been hatched. Gen. Gerasimov will personally supervise it. Now compare it to what I learned from two different, high-ranking intel sources.
The first source was explicit: the whole Kazakh adventure is being sponsored by MI6 to create a new Maidan right before the Russia/US-NATO talks in Geneva and Brussels next week, to prevent any kind of agreement. Significantly, the “rebels” maintained their national coordination even after the internet was disconnected.
The second source is more nuanced: the usual suspects are trying to force Russia to back down against the collective West by creating a major distraction in their Eastern front, as part of a rolling strategy of chaos all along Russia’s borders. That may be a clever diversionary tactic, but Russian military intel is watching. Closely. And for the sake of the usual suspects, this better may not be interpreted – ominously – as a war provocation.”
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I don’t what the point is. The first paragraph is trademark PE: stringing together a series of proper names in a free-association style designed to make the uninformed ooh and ah. But as Shakespeare reminded us, signifying nothing. Throw in a line from a 1960s or 70s pop song and – voila. Do you truly believe that the Kazakh government plans to seize U.S. and British assets? As for the Biden-Putin and NATO-Russia discussions – totally on U.S. and NATO terms – they would have been an exercise in futility and humiliation for Russia even before yesterday’s historically unprecedented orgy of Russia baiting and bashing from Blinken and Stoltenberg. Lukashenko two days ago summarized what you state in the last paragraph, that the U.S. and NATO are moving on all former Soviet space “along the Russian perimeter.” Anyone who even occasionally visits this site would have known that.
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I have merely posted excerpts from an article by Pepe Escobar with a link for those who may be interested in the entire article. I have made no personal comments to support or reject aspects of this report, merely finding some of the information in the report may be of interest to some.
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p2. In relation to your questions:
RR- Do you truly believe that the Kazakh government plans to seize U.S. and British assets?
Answer – The potential seizure of US or UK assets involved in regime change efforts is not relevant. The significance is the fact of foreign involvement.
RR – Lukashenko two days ago summarized what you state in the last paragraph, that the U.S. and NATO are moving on all former Soviet space “along the Russian perimeter.” Anyone who even occasionally visits this site would have known that.
Answer – I did not state anything in the last paragraph. This was still part of the article by Pepe Escobar.
The article by Pepe Escobar will be of interest to some (although your comments clarify you dislike him). My assessment of the events in Kazakhstan is they involve domestic grievances exploited by various foreign sources (both state and non-state actors, involving the foreign training of various armed insurgent groups) but as destabilising as these (regime change) events are, they are relatively insignificant in comparison to approaching situations of war between the US-NATO-allied bloc and Russia. Recent US-NATO reconnaissance flights identifying targets in the Donbass and Crimea and the associated positioning of missile delivery assets in the region (in the context of Russian warnings of military counteractions to US-NATO operations against the LDNR), indicate a significant escalation is approaching.
When this occurs, a world war scenario will be evident. The incompatible and hardening of positions in an increasingly confrontational environment (an intensifying hybrid warfare domain) indicate this scenario is almost inevitable. As I have previously stated, the eventual outcome of a world war scenario in a nuclear era is self-evident.
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Who the heck is Pepe Escobar? Is he related to Pepe Le Pieu? Do not touch your dial. We control the vertical. We control the horizontal. We control the Left AND the Right.
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The responses to my original posting (being excerpts from a report by a well known and broadly respected journalist who often presents interesting information through his professional contacts) are remarkable.
Enjoy your little insular club here.
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The last comment is uncalled for. When you enter someone’s else’s domain – uninvited – you might try to be respectful.
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C’mon man. Don’t be so thin skinned. Your heart is in the right place.
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That’s for alex.
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