In addition to opening fronts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

====

Global Comment
March 31, 2022

South Caucasus: a new war on the horizon
Nikola Mikovic

While the world’s eyes turn towards Ukraine, Azerbaijan is taking full advantage in the South Caucasus. Quite aware that Russia is not in a position to intervene and protect its ally Armenia, the energy-rich nation is attempting to establish control over portions of Nagorno-Karabakh that are still under Armenian control.

***

Nominally, Russia is an ally of both Azerbaijan and Armenia. Yerevan has been a member of the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) since 1994, while Russian President Vladimir Putin and Azerbaijan’s leader Ilham Aliyev signed an “allied cooperation agreement” on 22 February 2022, just two days before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. Still, given the new geopolitical reality, Azerbaijan is trying to benefit from Russia’s weakened position in the international arena and restore its sovereignty over the territory that is still controlled by the Armenia-backed self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh.

***

Ukraine…reportedly hopes that Azerbaijan could open a “second front” in Nagorno-Karabakh, which would help the Eastern European nation launch a counter offensive against Russian forces in several Ukrainian regions….

Armenia, as a defeated country, is not expected to fight another war against Azerbaijan – a nation that is firmly backed by NATO-member Turkey. In the event of a potential offensive by Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh, Yerevan will be unlikely to be able to help its proxy forces the region. Indeed, Armenia would be the biggest loser in a new war, although a potential conflict would additionally reduce Moscow’s influence in the South Caucasus.

Russia’s poor military performances in Ukraine have shown that its army is not as strong as previously believed. That is why Azerbaijan is not hesitating to take advantage of Putin’s war in the Eastern European country, and aims to achieve at least some of its military goals. Capturing Farrukh is just the first step in that direction.

====

Moscow Times
March 30, 2022

Nervousness in South Caucasus as Russia Distracted in Ukraine

“Russia was already facing challenges in the South Caucasus with Turkey playing an ever greater role, but now it’s distracted and could lose ground,” said Paul Stronski, a South Caucasus analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank.

***

Key to Russian influence in the South Caucasus is its role in Nagorno-Karabakh, a breakaway territory internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but inhabited predominantly by ethnic Armenians. While Russia enjoys good relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan, the latter is also an ally of Turkey, Moscow’s main regional competitor.

***

Azerbaijani troops occupied the village of Farrukh in Nagorno-Karabakh at the weekend amid an upsurge in fighting and accusations from either side.

Russia’s Defense Ministry accused Azerbaijan of violating the ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh, and said Moscow’s peacekeeping contingent would “take measures to resolve the situation.”

***

For its part, Ukraine has traditionally been aligned with Azerbaijan, selling Baku arms, whereas Armenia is dependent on Russia for its security.

====

Panorama.am
March 17, 2022

Armenian expert: Baku dictator almost openly joined anti-Russian camp

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has almost openly joined the anti-Russian camp, according to Armenian expert on Iran Vardan Voskanyan, who heads the Chair of Iranian Studies of the Faculty of Oriental Studies at the Yerevan State University.

His comments came after a phone call between Aliyev and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, where the latter thanked the Azeri leader for the support provided to Ukraine.

“The ink is still wet on the declaration on Russia-Azerbaijan “alliance”, but the Baku dictator, who recently praised Russia in Moscow, has almost openly joined the camp of anti-Russian actions,” he wrote on Telegram.

“The U.S. secretary of state hinted to it in a post on Twitter, noting that he thanked the Baku dictator for his assistance to Ukraine.

“I think it’s obvious what kind of “assistance” it is about, taking into account Russian and Syrian media reports as well.

“Baku’s dictatorial regime, under the guise of humanitarian aid, sent Middle Eastern terrorists and mercenaries to Ukraine to fight against Russian troops and volunteers in Donbass,” Voskanyan said.